PREPARING FOR PANDEMICS

In far too many cases, recommendations of forensic reports on previous pandemics were ignored. Substantial weaknesses in the preparation by public health authorities and governments increased the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic relative to what they would have been if pre-existing recommendations had been followed and a wider set of plans had been put into place. We discuss parallels between the lack of preparation of financial system regulators prior to the global financial crisis and the lack of preparation by public health authorities and governments prior to COVID-19. These parallels relate to: required stocks (of capital or equipment), data collection and sharing, lending facilities, stress testing and war games, early warning indicators and systems, contagion from abroad, operational risks, a system-wide approach (including effects on the real economy), models incorporating the heterogeneity of individuals, and effects on less-regulated parts of the system. The recent COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated that, apart from the direct economic consequences from illness and death from the virus, the main costs have been due to the varying degrees of preventative measures taken by the public, firms, and governments that directly impacted health, as well as social, economic, and financial activity. We make recommendations for carrying out post mortems on the COVID-19 experience, planning for future pandemics, and establishing transparent and accountable governance systems. We then propose the use of regular, combined health, economic, and financial stress tests and exercises/war games in preparing for future pandemics and other major environmental shocks.

Contents:

• About the Authors
• Acknowledgments
• Introduction: COVID-19 and the Authorities
• Poor Pandemic Readiness
• Parallels
• Plans and Preparations
• Pandemic Preparedness
• Conclusion
• Index

Readership: Graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in the fields of public health policy, economic policy, government fiscal policy, and systemic risk management.

This book is a winner on two fronts: it is badly needed and it is very interesting. No country was even close to being adequately prepared for Covid-19, though some in the developed world, including Canada, thought they were, because of lessons learned from SARS in 2003. But there is vastly more to pandemic preparation than storing away some PPE, and those preparations extend far beyond just the health care system. What they are, and how they can be conceived, modelled, and tested is what this book is about. It should be read and followed. We need to be able to do better next time.' - John Scott Cowan, PhD, Retired Medical Research Scientist and Principal Emeritus, The Royal Military College of Canada

' With Covid-19 showing hopeful signs of subsiding and the prospect of a return to the 'new normal', authors Milne and Longworth call for much-needed preparedness for the inevitable next pandemic. It's a fascinating analysis. By comparing the current situation with the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, they draw attention to the vital matter of avoiding the dreadful mistakes made in the handling of today's crisis and applying the lessons learned. This they propose through a logical process of data-collection, post-mortem analysis, war-gaming, simulation, and application. It's a huge challenge, calling for massive international cooperation in numerous areas touching on more than simply the medical aspects. The very nature of global politics and diplomacy will be put to the test. Will it be an opportunity to show that democracy outplays oligarchy in applying the lessons of Covid-19 and its variants? Will ethics dilemmas (think anti-vax) be resolved the next time around? For a better understanding of how the impact of future pandemics can be minimized, one would do well to read, study and apply the authors' superb analysis and support their conclusions.' - General (Ret'd) Paul Manson, OC, CMM, CD, Chief of the Defence Staff 1986–89

'Longworth/Milne's book extracts lessons from plans to deal with crises, notably that of global finance in 2007/9, and the current viral pandemic. If learned and applied, they could diminish applicability of the adage that even best-laid plans 'gang aft agley'. The authors' principal recommendations are for the establishment of powerful standing authorities to do penetrating 'post mortems' on existing pandemic and other plans and in planning for future crises of all kinds, to conduct regular stress tests and war-games, well-established tools of the financial and military worlds. The predictive results should deal with the breadth of the impact of a future crisis on every jurisdiction, health, economic, financial, social, cultural, overall well-being and, above all, be designed to counter complacency, the nemesis of crisis preparedness.' - Duncan G Sinclair, Professor emeritus, Queen's University

'The idea behind this book is tremendous: that policy makers should learn from disasters and crises in other fields, not only their own. That imperative is addressed with expertise, and judicious intelligence. This is an important book which policymakers, commentators, and scholars should take seriously.' - Paul Tucker, Harvard Kennedy School, Former central banker

'Covid-19 has been plaguing the world now for more than two years. Enough time has now passed to start reviewing mankind's performance in managing it. David Longworth and Frank Milne have taken an interesting multi-disciplinary approach to such a review by comparing the Covid-19 Global Pandemic to the Global Financial Crisis. This enables them to draw out a richer set of lessons from the similar shortcomings that emerged from the two crises than one might find by simply reviewing the pandemic from a public health management perspective. I commend their book and approach to all both from the standpoint of gaining a better understanding of how this pandemic could have been better managed, and as a template as to how such multi-disciplinary reviews can be conducted in the future.' - Mark Zelmer, CD Howe Institute, Former prudential regulator

Key Features:

• Unique in explaining the initial policy failures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and recommending reforms to prepare for future pandemics
• There is no integrated framework for policy analysis that includes public health, social, and economic costs and benefits, and this book fills this gap
• The authors have professional experience with risk management practices and policy reforms associated with the 2007–2009 Great Financial Crisis to draw parallels with the pandemic that are highly instructive